Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
