A mere 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have accumulated.
Per the data, twice all season has the team posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United had more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a vital England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
