Why Is This US Shutdown Distinct (and More Intractable)?
Government closures have become a recurring element in American political life – however this one feels particularly intractable due to political dynamics and deep-seated animosity between both major parties.
Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, and about 750,000 employees are expected to be put on furlough without pay as Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path this time because each side – including the nation's leader – can see some merit in maintaining their positions.
These are the four ways in which things feel different currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues
Democratic supporters have insisted for months for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the current presidency. Well now the party leadership has a chance to show they have listened.
Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism after supporting GOP budget legislation thus preventing a government closure in the spring. This time he's digging in.
This is a chance for Democrats to demonstrate they can take back certain authority from an administration pursuing its agenda assertively on its agenda.
Opposing the Republican spending plan carries electoral dangers as citizens generally will grow frustrated with prolonged negotiations and consequences begin to mount.
The Democrats are using the budget standoff to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support and Republican-approved federal health program reductions for the poor, which are both unpopular.
Additionally, they're attempting to curtail the President's use of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, which he has done with foreign aid and various federal programs.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President and one of his key officials have openly indicated their perspective that they perceive an opening to advance further reductions to the federal workforce that have featured in the Republican's second presidency so far.
The nation's leader personally stated recently that the shutdown provided him with a "unique chance", adding he intended to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".
The White House stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. The Press Secretary described this as "fiscal sanity".
The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, but the White House have been consulting with federal budget authorities, or OMB, which is headed by the administration's budget director.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
Whereas past government closures typically involved late-night talks between the two parties in an effort to get federal operations, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.
Instead, there is rancour. Political tensions continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
The legislative leader from the majority party, accused Democrats of not being serious toward resolution, and maintaining positions during discussions "to get political cover".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader made similar charges against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment regarding health funding talks once the government reopens cannot be trusted.
The President himself has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader and the top Democrat in the House, where the representative appears wearing traditional headwear and a moustache.
The affected legislator with party colleagues called this racist, which was denied by the Vice-President.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave as a result of the government closure.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, payments to contractors along with various forms of government activity tied to business cease functioning.
The closure additionally introduces fresh instability into an economy currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and technological advancements.
Analysts estimate potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points from national economic expansion weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.
That could be one reason why the stock market has appeared largely unfazed by the current stand-off.
On the other hand, experts indicate that if the President carries out his threat of mass firings, the damage could be extended in duration.